Impacts of climate change on rare species Goniurosaurus luii in Vietnam

29/11/2025

The impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Vietnam are becoming increasingly severe, particularly for species with narrow distribution ranges and low adaptive capacity. A group of scientists from the Institute of Biology under the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, the School of Chemistry and Life Science – Hanoi University of Science and Technology, in collaboration with Cologne Zoo and the Alexander Koenig Museum (Germany), have applied algorithmic modelling using greenhouse gas emission scenarios to predict the current potential distribution and assess future climate change impacts on the rare species Goniurosaurus luii.

Goniurosaurus luii was first discovered in southern China and later found in some areas of Cao Bang and Lang Son provinces in Vietnam. The species is only recorded in limestone forest habitats, which are being severely affected and fragmented by logging, limestone extraction for cement production, and the expansion of transportation routes and infrastructure. Hunting and large-scale trade, both domestic and international, have caused the species to become locally extinct in parts of China. As a result, Goniurosaurus luii has been listed in the IUCN Red List and the Vietnam Red Data Book as Vulnerable (VU), included in Appendix II of CITES on the prohibition of wildlife trade, and protected under regulations of the Government of Vietnam.

Photo: Goniurosaurus luii in the wild

Being an ectothermic species, Goniurosaurus luii is highly sensitive to changes in climatic and weather conditions. Previous studies on other Goniurosaurus species in Vietnam predicted significant contractions in their distribution under future climate change impacts. To better understand these impacts, the research team collected data on distribution coordinates and climatic conditions in both current and future scenarios. By applying MaxEnt modelling, the team predicted the present suitable climatic range and evaluated the extent of climate change effects on the species.

Based on current predictions, suitable climatic habitats for Goniurosaurus luii are concentrated mainly in northeastern Cao Bang province and northwestern Lang Son province (Vietnam), extending to the border areas of Sung Ta and Bach Sac districts (Guangxi, China), covering all known localities. The total core distribution area is estimated at approximately 3,175 km² within limestone mountainous landscapes.

Predicted present-day suitable climatic range for Goniurosaurus luii

Using future climate change projections under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (moderate, high, and extreme) at three time points—2050s, 2070s, and 2090s—the research team forecast a gradual decline in the species’ potential distribution over time. Notably, future models indicate that by the 2090s, the suitable climatic habitat may dramatically shrink and potentially disappear entirely under high and extreme emission scenarios. This suggests that climate change could erase all suitable habitat for Goniurosaurus luii by the end of this century.

Predicted suitable distribution under future climate scenarios (A) ssp245–2050s; (B) ssp245–2070s; (C) ssp245–2090s; (D) ssp370–2050s; (E) ssp370–2070s; (F) ssp370–2090s; (G) ssp585–2050s; (H) ssp585–2070s; (I) ssp585–2090s

In this context, urgent in-situ conservation, restrictions on exploitation, and the protection of limestone mountain habitats are the only measures to ensure the species’ survival. Based on predicted suitable climatic zones, the research team proposed priority conservation areas for the species. These potential distribution areas include limestone forests in Trung Khanh, Ha Lang, Quang Uyen, Phuc Hoa, and Thach An communes of Cao Bang province; the former Trang Dinh district (now Quoc Khanh commune) of Lang Son province (Vietnam); as well as a large area in Sung Ta district and a smaller area along the border of Bach Sac district, Guangxi, China. Among these, the Trung Khanh Nature Reserve is proposed as the core site for implementing and developing in-situ conservation programmes for Goniurosaurus luii.

Priority conservation areas for Goniurosaurus luii

Translated by Tuyet Nhung
Link to Vietnamese version

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