Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology

Project's information

Project's title	Study on the impact of increasing organic pollution and nutrients from human activities and climate change on primary productivity in the coastal area of Cat Ba-Ha Long
Project’s code	VAST05.05/21-22
Research hosting institution	Institute of Marine Environment and Resources
Project leader’s name	Dr. Vu Duy Vinh
Project duration	01/01/2021 - 31/12/2023
Project’s budget	600 million VND
Classify	Grade A
Goal and objectives of the project	- Assess and forecast the impacts caused by the increase in organic pollution, nutrition from human activities, and climate change on primary productivity in the coastal area of Cat Ba-Ha Long. - Propose solutions to limit and minimize negative impacts on primary productivity in the coastal area of Cat Ba-Ha Long caused by human activities and climate change.
Main results	- Theoretical results: The project assessed the manifestations of climate change such as increasing water temperature, and sea level rise in the study area, assessing/forecasting the impacts due to the increase in organic pollution, nutrition from human activities, and climate change on primary productivity in Cat Ba - Ha Long sea. The project has proposed solutions to limit and minimize the negative impacts of human activities and climate change on primary productivity in the study area. - Applied results: updated data on the trend of sea level rise, sea temperature increase in Hai Phong – Quang Ninh in general, and Cat Ba – Ha Long, in particular, have high reference value in science as well as management. In addition, assessments/forecasts on human impacts and climate change on the environment and primary productivity in the study area will help managers make reasonable and scientific decisions for socio-economic development associated with environmental protection for sustainable development goals. Scientific products on the topic published in prestigious domestic and international journals will be valuable references for related research.
Novelty and actuality and scientific meaningfulness of the results	- Assess how the study area's water level and temperature have changed over the previous 60 years (from 1960 to 2020). Specifically, the trend of rapidly rising sea temperatures (to as high as 0.093°C/year in the Hai Phong coastal zone and as high as 0.1°C/year in the Quang Ninh coastal area) and sea levels (7mm/year in the Hai Phong coastal area and 5.4-11.2mm/year in the Quang Ninh coastal area) in recent years. - Assess/forecast the impacts due to the increase in nutrient/organic resources from human activities and climate change (temperature and water level increase) in the Cat Ba-Ha Long region. Accordingly, the effects due to increased nutrient, organic, temperature, and water levels in scenarios 2025, 2030, and 2050 do not significantly change the distribution of primary productivity in the study area. In some areas such as the middle of Ha Long Bay, southeastern Ha Long Bay, and Cat Ba Bay, the analysis results show that these synergistic influences also exhibit different levels of seasonality and each region. However, these changes (increases/decreases) are only about 0.001-0.003 gC/m3/day.
Products of the project	- Scientific papers in referred journals (list): 1) Nguyen, Hai M., Sylvain Ouillon, and Vinh D. Vu. 2022. "Sea Level Variation and Trend Analysis by Comparing Mann–Kendall Test and Innovative Trend Analysis in Front of the Red River Delta, Vietnam (1961–2020)" Water 14, no. 11: 1709. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111709 2) Nguyen Minh, H., Ouillon, S., & Vu Duy, V. (2022). Sea-level rise in Hai Phong coastal area (Vietnam) and its response to ENSO - evidence from tide gauge measurement of 1960-2020. Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 44(1), 109–126. https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16961 3) Vu Duy, V., Ouillon, S. ., & Nguyen Minh, H. (2022). Sea surface temperature trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator: a study of the Hai Phong coastal area (Vietnam) for the period 1995-2020. Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 44(1), 72–91. https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16874 4) Nguyen Minh, H., & Vu Duy, V. (2022). How climate change affected on the water level in Ha Long coastal area in the period 1974–2020: results from the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimate. Vietnam Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 22(3), 257–269. https://doi.org/10.15625/1859-3097/16956 - Patents (list): - Technological products (describe in detail: technical characteristics, place): - Other products (if applicable): 1) Report on assessment of impacts from human activities due to increasing sources of organic pollutants and nutrients on primary productivity in the coastal area of Cat Ba-Ha Long. 2) Report on assessing the combined impacts of human activities and climate change on primary productivity in the coastal area of Cat Ba-Ha Long. 3) The report proposes solutions to mitigate impacts caused by the increase in organic pollutants, nutrition from human activities, and climate change on the ecological environment of the Cat Ba-Ha Long coastal area. - Other products (if any): Support training 01 Ph.D. student Nguyen Minh Hai, at the Academy of Science and Technology, entitled "Research on the impact of socio-economic activities and climate change on water in the coastline of Cat Ba-Ha Long".
Research region	The reports and evaluation results of the mission will provide scientific basis for the Management Board of Ha Long Bay, Cat Ba National Park, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, and People's Committees of coastal localities in environmental management and protection for sustainable development of Cat Ba - Ha Long area under the impacts of children people and climate change; Contribute to the development of plans to cope with complex developments due to climate change in the future; Contribute to strategic planning of environmental protection, marine resources and sustainable development of the region.
Recommendations	The research results in this project are just the beginning, to assess the systematic impacts of human activities and climate change on NSSC, more comprehensive and comprehensive research is needed, and more measurement/survey data is needed.
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